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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd