Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.