Whenever the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for issues.
That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this illicit balloon traffic has forced Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into shutdown 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the airspace was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the officials are certain they are facing something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.
They contend the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.
Emergency Response
The Lithuanian administration has declared an official alert.
While balloons have been used by smugglers in the past, their numbers increased dramatically this October.
"Naturally it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits criminal networks to have an effect on bordering nations," a senior official stated.
The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.
Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern flank.
"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the realm of national security."
Nightly Patrols
Now, each evening, security forces patrol in the border zone.
The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.
Patrols set up temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.
The balloons travel too high up to make shooting them down a viable or cost-effective option.
Consequently, the government has announced a financial incentive to any company that can devise how to intercept them.
In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.
Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.
Strategic Motives
The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.
This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as adversarial.
Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".
He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.
In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.
"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."
The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.
"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.
The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Economic and Social Impact
Currently, travellers and airlines face disruptions.
"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.
Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.
"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.
"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.
"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."
