The diplomatic language and optics from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest official trip to India projected a robust two-way relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the statesmen took a car journey, mirroring a familiar political style. In his address, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "lodestar", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India during his 25-year tenure and his twentieth encounter with Modi after the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.
A Chasm Between Pageantry and Reality
Nevertheless, a noticeable gap exists between the ceremony and the actual content of this partnership. Although Putin vowed "continuous fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international pressure. The two countries signed a series of agreements covering mobility, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic exchanges. However, anticipated revelations on major defence deals did not materialize. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.
A Partnership Losing Strategic Influence
This all points to that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer holds the same geopolitical heft it previously possessed. During the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and market access to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have attempted to maintain a appearance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" alliance announced in 2010, the reality is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has substantially strengthened ties with the Western world.
Diversification and Inherent Contradictions
New Delhi is unlikely to cut its important links with Moscow. But, as Western coercion mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to broaden the partnership into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they announced an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, designed to make their relations "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This involves enhancing entry for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two spans multiple strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Perceived Reliability
At an ideological level, a significant amount of closeness with Russia persists, particularly among senior generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the earlier era. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have issued sharp comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a more dependable ally.
This challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip made no reference to Ukraine, even though it paradoxically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated assertion that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been minimal.
Navigating the Dilemma: India's Global Balancing Act
This situation does not belie the inherent complexities in India's international stance. The country is set to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, following a similar pact with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a three-way technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to boost people-to-people exchanges between India and Russia.
How can India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the removal of a key irritant in its ties with the West. But, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will certainly continue in European and American governments.
