Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
