‘A Critical Scenario’: War on Iran Tightens India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the scarcities are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are running out of them.

Government Stance

Yet, the authorities insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now largely blocked by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being prioritised for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a ministry representative.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "Anxiety is palpable," the text reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around 50% of its oil purchases - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.